Obama Not as Strong as he Thinks
By: Craig Chamberlain
It’s difficult to defeat an incumbent President. It’s only happened 10 times in American history, but this November can be number eleven. Yes, the President has certain advantages. He has the power and dignity of the office, universal name recognition, and a whole lot of money. But the idea that President Obama is unbeatable is ridiculous. We have a weak economy, Americans think that the country is going in the wrong direction, and the Obama coalition is falling apart.
The Democratic party, and beltway journalists, were practically popping champagne when it was reported that 200,000 jobs were added in December lowering the unemployment rate from 8.6% to a jaw-dropping 8.5%. What the half wits didn’t tell the American people is that there are always job gains in December. Employers need help for Christmas. Most of these jobs are only temporary. Of the 200,000 jobs added in December42,000 were with package delivery companies to cope with the Christmas rush. Those people are now unemployed as there are no more Christmas packages to deliver. These job gains are temporary, and the economy isn’t ready to add new jobs and get back to work. The official unemployment rate also doesn’t take into account the discouraged workers, those who have stopped looking for work. It also doesn’t count the underemployed, those who would like full time employment but are unable to find it. I wonder if they’ll count all of the military personnel who are about to be mustered out of service, and put out of work, due to President Obama’s military cuts?
When all of those things are factored in the real unemployment rate is closer to 12% to 13%. That’s hardly a recipe for success for an incumbent President. The GOP candidates are rightly focusing on President Obama’s failures, (although they are stupidly blasting Governor Romney for his time at Bain.) This is an asset for GOP candidates, but it’s not a guarantee of success on its own. But there are other signs that America is ready for a change. The Obama coalition is not what it once was. He isn’t sending thrills up anyone’s legs anymore. Independents have abandoned him, the youth vote isn’t as excited. He still has the minority vote, and the far left, but that isn’t enough to win an election.
In 2008 he got 52% of the vote, and it’s unlikely that he’s going to break that in 2012. He was able to score such a victory in the electoral college by increasing voter turnout, flipping some swing states to his side, and turning blue states bluer. Many of the states that he took from the GOP will probably go back to the GOP. It’s unlikely, with the loss of moderate independent voters, that he’ll hold onto states like Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. The key to victory is Ohio, no Republican has ever won without it, and only four Democrats since 1856 have won without its electoral votes(James Buchanan, Grover Cleveland in 1884, FDR in 1944, and JFK). If the GOP is able to win over the voters of Ohio, which isn’t out of the question with the Buckeye states poor economy, then it’s likely that President Obama is a one term President.
Americans are almost universal in their pessimism about the direction of our country. It’s no wonder. Trillions of dollars in debt, a weak economy, and a political class that stubbornly refuses to listen to the people and address the real issues of overspending. Obama knows he’s weak on this. That’s why he’s abandoning working class people, especially working class whites, as part of his coalition. He’s hoping to use fear and class warfare to rally hard leftists, minorities, and the poor on government assistance to vote for him. He wants to create a society where the productive subsidize the lazy, the smart work to provide for the stupid, and businesses are gutted by the government and are supposed to be grateful for the privilege. He’s hoping he can convince the American people that a change now would be dangerous and painful, and the GOP nominee, whoever that is, is an extremist. If Americans vote for that then we get what we deserve.
If the GOP is smart, and focuses on defeating President Obama instead of a fratricidal civil war, focuses on getting the old Reagan Democrats to vote GOP then states like Ohio and Indiana should go back to the GOP, and even states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin could be in play. Getting the base excited shouldn’t be too difficult. It’s hard to imagine any Republican who would be alright with a second Obama term. Obama is beatable, that’s why he wants a billion dollar war chest, it’s why he’s already working to paint the GOP field as a bunch of racist extremists, and it’s why he’s giving the occupy Wall Street movement a big sloppy kiss.
This election will determine the future and direction of America for decades. Do we want America to be a capitalist nation, with a limited government controlled by the Constitution? Or do we want America to be a socialist state governed by Progressive principles and unlimited government? The people will answer that question in November, let’s hope that they give the right answer in November. We might not get a second chance at it.