Five Reasons why Obama is Vulnerable
By: Craig Chamberlain
With an important decision this November the American people need to think about whether or not they want to give President Obama a second term. Most people have already made up their minds. About 45% are sure to vote against him, about 45% are sure to vote for him. That means that the two parties are going to clutter up the airwaves,and spend over a billion dollars to convince this 10% of indecisive voters. I hope these people will do the right thing and vote the bum out, and while I claim no psychic powers to see the future I think there is a better than 50% chance that President Obama doesn’t get reelected in November.
1) Independent voters have turned against him. Independents supported the Democrats by wide margins in 2006 and 2008. Fifty seven percent of independent voters backed President Obama over Senator McCain. That support began to erode just after he took the oath of office. In November of 2009, the independent voters backed Chris Christie in New Jersey, Bob McDonnell in Virginia, and gave the GOP control of the House of Representatives in 2010. So far there is no sign that the independent voters have moved back to supporting President Obama. While this group is not monolithic, they are not happy with the direction of the country. This is why President Obama is forsaking white working class voters and hoping to get reelected on increasing the voter turnout of minorities and left wing activists.
2) The youth vote isn’t nearly as excited as it was in 2008. The under 30 crowd followed the siren song last time around. Now that the oceans haven’t receded, the earth hasn’t healed itself, and were not living in Utopia many of the youth are a bit disenchanted. Maybe the fact that a lot of them are out of college and having to look for work and live in the real world might have something to do with it too. While Obama will still get the majority of voters under the age of thirty, it’s not likely to be as significant a part of the vote as it was four years ago. It’s one thing to chant hope and change when you’re living in a dorm room, and mom and dad are paying the bills. It’s quite another when you have to work a nine to five job, pay your rent, and are starting a family.
3) It’s the economy stupid. I hate to quote James Carville, but that’s the only way to put it. The economy stinks and the American people know it. Officially the unemployment rate hovers around 9%, but everyone knows better. Many have stopped looking for work so they are no longer calculated in unemployment figures, and those who are underemployed are not calculated in either. The real unemployment rate is somewhere in the 15 to 18% range, and it’s much higher for minorities and the young. The last President to get reelected with unemployment numbers like that was FDR in 1940. It’s not just the unemployment rate. Businesses aren’t hiring, prices are going up, the dollar is weak, and the President is destroying what economic opportunities do exist. He forbids offshore drilling, won’t allow the Keystone pipeline(the oil will now be going to China), shuts down coal mines and coal powered power plants, he wants to raise taxes on businesses and job creators, and let’s not forget Obamacare, there’s a job killer if there ever was one.
4) Most Americans think that the country is headed in the wrong direction. High unemployment, fifteen trillion dollars in debt, a trillion dollar deficit, weakness at home and abroad. There is a general sense of malaise. There is a belief that the country’s best days are behind it and all we can hope for is managed decline. This is a worldview that the President himself endorses, he doesn’t believe in American exceptional ism and thinks that the United States is no different than any other country. Or as he put it “he believes in American exceptionalism the way the Greeks believe in Greek exceptionalism” which is to say he doesn’t believe in it at all. When the President thinks that way it’s no wonder that the American people think that too. Its seems that the Democratic Presidents always bring out the worst in America. The people need to be reminded that America can recover, and will, if we take the right steps, and step number one is find ourselves a new President.
5) It’s unlikely that President Obama can win the states he needs to win to be reelected. In 2008 President Obama won nine states that the GOP had won in 2004. It’s unlikely that given the economic situation, the more conservative nature of these states, and the fact that so much of the luster has worn off, that he can hold onto all of these states. He must hold onto Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. He won many of these key states by razor thin margins. In the case of North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Indiana his margin of victory was a few thousand votes. It’s unlikely that he holds onto these states. Independents and working class whites are not in his camp anymore, and now that President Obama has shed his moderate image to reveal the leftist he really is that these states will vote for Obama again. He won just 52% of then popular vote in 2008, he won’t improve on that in 2012, and most likely will do worse on that.
There’s no guarantee that President Obama will lose this November. The economy could turn around, though unlikely. The voters might prefer to give control of Congress to the GOP and leave Obama in the White House sticking with the devil they know vs. the devil they don’t. The Republicans could nominate an unelectable candidate. Or President Obama’s class warfare campaign might be successful. There’s no way of knowing. But what we do know is the GOP has a real shot to reclaim the government and get this country back on the track to prosperity and be actually governed by the constitution. As long as we don’t screw it up.