Even With Bush UP In Polls, DON'T FORGET TO VOTE!
Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Posted by J. J. Jackson @ 6:10 AM
(source Real Clear Politics)
First of all, EVERYONE that has read what I have written in the past knows that I hate polls and don't think that there is any way to sample 1,000 likely voters and accurately predict how the Presidential race will turn out. Polling is a black art because it deals with statistics and I spent the better part of my college career dealing with statistics and learning how to make them say what you want them to say.
Of the final three polls (Battleground, Rasmussen & TIPP) each has the President up by an ever so slight margin nationally ranging from 1.7 to 4%. And even looking at all the polls over the past weeks it does appear that George Bush has held a lead in 90% of the polls taken since August. But that does not mean that you shouldn't vote if you support President Bush. Don't fall into the mind set of "he's going to win".
First of all, popular vote which these polls track means nothing. Its the Electoral college that counts and with NY, California and Illinois all going for Kerry (107 EVs) that puts Kerry a third of the way to the 270 he needs to win. Add Pennsylvania to that mix (128 EV total) and he's got almost 50% of what he needs.
So it is important to vote. If you are in ANY of the "to close to call" states, get out and vote! That means, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Hawaii, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire! The 104 Electoral Votes that make up these states WILL decide the election.
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